Srinivas Reddy’s Weblog

My Tech Rants

Outlook 2007

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Wish you and ur family members a very Happy and memorable New Year.  I will take this chance to review my predictions made for 2006 and make new ones. Actually if you make ur predictions broad enough you can be sure no one can disclaim them ;o)  Looking back, I was talking about federation happening in the hardware, software and network stacks and a push in the mobile apps space.  I confess I was more wrong about things then right :o(   We didn’t really see any new killer product like iPod this year. In some sense this year was more about ground work for future innovations.  We did see some new console games (Nintendo’s Wii has been the biggest hit but nothing like iPod), many product launches from Microsoft (Vista, Zune, VisualStudio new versions,…), important hardware innovations hit the mainstream market (muticore processors, server virtualisation,..) probably the biggest hit has been web2.0 applications (RSS feeds, YouTube, Social networking sites,..) which have largely benefited from the increasing consumer broadband (DSL) access. 

So how is going to be like in 2007? We are in the middle of transformation to a digital economy with the consumer market leading and enterprises following.  I expect the trend to continue. While Apple may actually deliver on its promise (be it iTV, iPhone,…), we can expect many product launches related to IPTV and MobileTV. While we have been waiting for these products, considering the legacy systems and user expectations, only ‘break through’ innovations can deliver some hits here.  ‘Convergence’ is complex process (like enterprise integration projects) and any minor victories we see each year must be celebrated. While we will continue to see innovations in the development tools front (with Eclipse and Visual studio leading the way…) they will continue to evolve with incremental innovation. On the development processes front we have seen the ‘agile development’ as big winner last year and this will continue to be true.  With global competition only set to intensify need for ‘agile processes’ to deliver is a good investment. 

I expect the web2.0 apps to get more vertical focussed (Google finance, health, education …) and the Google like webOS may actually crack the Small & Medium enterprise market with their Software as a Service (SaaS) models.  As for the ‘mobile apps’ market itself , unless we have ‘flat rate Mobile data packages’ from telco’s no real mobile content innovation can happen. While ‘Mobile TV’ may just make this happen in emerging markets, in the western world I dont see this happen at least next year. Amazon with its ‘Hardware as a Service (HaaS)’ model and increasing (web)service based  ecosystems being but in place (by google, yahoo, microsoft, amazon, ebay,…) will mean new challenges for software developers, tech firms and end-users. While they have disruptive potential (just like opensource software) market success needs ‘viable business models’ ( ad revenues from google are not good enough) and we will likely see some web2.0 bubble bursts ( a lot of VC money is going in there!!).

On the hardware front itself, the enterprises will continue to consolidate servers using the virtualisation innovations.  While ‘Moore’s law’ does not apply to semiconductor industry anymore to leverage the new ‘multi-core’ processors will need more software innovations before ‘real’ benefits can occur next year. On the network front, even as we all wait for ‘Next Generation Networks’ (what ever that means) we already see some ‘Fixed-Mobile’ convergence happening in Europe already. In India (as in rest of world) we will see huge investment into the new networks but ‘killer apps’ may still be consumer entertainment (music, games, movies, social networks…)

Hope we have lot of ‘Creative innovation’ in store for us next year.  On this note Happy New Year again.

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Written by srinivasreddy

December 31, 2006 at 7:22 pm

Posted in Technology

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